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MLB: Josh Johnson: Worth your betting dollar2010-07-27
One pitcher has dominated the National League like no other over the course of the last three months and his name is not Tim Lincecum, Roy Halladay, or Ubaldo Jimenez. Rather, it is Josh Johnson, who has rather quietly emerged from the shadow of those other aces to become one of the most dominant pitchers in baseball. He is on a roll like no other of late, and oddsmakers are having trouble gauging just how good he has been when setting their prices. For instance, for Tuesday’s game against Matt Cain and the Giants, bettors at Sportsbook.com can back Johnson’s Marlins at around even money.
The Marlins have climbed back over .500 by going 13-6 since Independence Day. Some of the credit during that surge has to go to Johnson, who is 3-0 in his starts during the surge. However, his complete domination traces back to long beyond that.
Johnson (10-3, 1.61 ERA) has not allowed more than two runs in his last 13 starts, going 7-2 with a 0.79 ERA. The last pitcher to put together such a streak for 14 outings in a row was Houston's Mike Scott in 1986.
In addition, Johnson has allowed one run over his last 28 innings on the road.
Perhaps the biggest signs of how much command a pitcher has had can be shown in his strikeouts and WHIP numbers. When looking at Johnson’s numbers during that stretch, he has struck out 94 hitters in 91-1/3 innings with a WHIP of 0.876. He has also enjoyed 18 straight “quality starts”.
Although Johnson has never beaten the San Francisco Giants, he's never faced them when he's been pitching this well. As the league’s ERA leader, he looks to earn his first victory over the Giants when the Marlins continue a four-game series Tuesday night at AT&T Park.
The right-hander is 0-3 with a 3.00 ERA in four career starts against the Giants (56-44), although the Marlins (50-49) supported him with a total of five runs in those outings.
As an illustration of just how much trouble the oddsmakers are having with Johnson, most pitchers on a run like his would command prices in the -200 or higher range. For tonight, he is listed at just -120, thanks in part to San Francisco’s recent success as well as Matt Cain’s prowess.
The Giants had a four-game win streak snapped with a 4-3 loss Monday. San Francisco fell 3 1/2 games behind first-place San Diego in the NL West. Overall, they have gone 15-4 since July 5th, slightly better than Florida.
Johnson will get his first look at promising Giants rookie Buster Posey, who is batting .461 during a 19-game hitting streak. Posey - whose 39 hits this month lead the majors - is three games shy of matching Hall of Famer Willie McCovey's San Francisco rookie record set in 1959.
Cain has generally been in a good rhythm against Florida, going 3-0 with a 2.83 ERA in six starts. He has won his last two starts after the Giants had dropped his prior five appearances.
Ironically, it is Johnson’s dominance that leads to a powerful StatFox Super Situation indicating that he may be ready to fall finally on Tuesday:
• Play Against - Road favorites with a money line of -110 or higher (FLORIDA) - with an on base percentage of .300 or worse over their last 15 games, with a hot starting pitcher- ERA less than 2.50 over his last 5 starts. (36-17 over the last 5 seasons.) (67.9%, +25.6 units. Rating = 3*)
For as much as the Marlins have been winning, they have been doing it more with pitching.
However, that said, Johnson still might prove to be the difference, based primarily on the price and the value which comes with a pitcher of his command:
• JOHNSON is 17-7 (+10.6 Units) against the money line when the money line is +125 to -125 over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record) The average score was JOHNSON 5.3, OPPONENT 3.2 - (Rating = 1*)
First pitch for this highly intriguing contest is set for 10:15 PM ET, or 7:15 PM on the left coast. The total is posted at a paltry 6.5. Even still, the StatFox Game Estimator shows a 3.3-2.9 projected win by the Giants, low enough to still take the game UNDER.
MLB: Toronto tilted towards totals system2010-06-10
The Toronto Blue Jays have Bet on NFL nfl football betting Online Bingo Online Bingo Rooms NFL Betting Lines
been kind to bettors this season cashing in at +10 units. However, they have dropped three straight and need a victory tonight versus the Tampa Bay Rays to avoid a sweep. Sportsbook.com currently has the visiting Jays as +128 underdogs.
The Blue Jays have a Major League leading 97 home runs and are tied for second in the American League with 34 quality starts.
Since Tampa Bay (39-20, +8.5) has gone from a one of the worst teams in baseball to one the best, Toronto has had almost no success against the Rays. They are 4-19 the last three years vs. Tampa Bay, after being torpedoed 9-0 and 10-1 in the first two games of this series.
The Jays will attempt to stem the tide, sending Brett Cecil (6-2, 3.43 ERA) to the mound. The second year left-hander has allowed a total of three runs in 23 1/3 innings over his last three starts. Cecil owns a four-game winning streak and has held opponents to a .170 batting average in this stretch. Even as well as Cecil has pitched, Toronto will need some offense and is 1-10 after scoring three runs or less three straight games.
Tampa Bay is 18-6 against left-handed starters this season and will look to get Wade Davis (5-5, 5.03) back on track, as he has a 10.80 ERA in his last three starts.
Sportsbook.com has Toronto as +128 money line underdogs, but more importantly the Blue Jays fit a ‘totals’ system for the final game of the series that is listed at 9 runs.
Play UNDER on all teams like Toronto when the total is 9 to 9.5, after scoring one run or less two straight games, against opponent after scoring 10 runs or more.
Dating back 13 years, this system is a money-making 31-8, 79.5 percent; with the average total score of 7.7 runs per game. Other circumstances also lend themselves to this being a winning play as Toronto is 17-5 UNDER after permitting 10 runs or more and Tampa Bay is 10-2 UNDER at Tropicana Field with a hot bullpen whose ERA is under 3.00 the last 15 games.
With home plate umpire Mike Winters 8-5 UNDER behind the plate, the odds could be your favor for this action this evening.
Don’t let these one-sided trends pass you buy, head over to Sportsbook.com now to wager on this or any other game on the Thursday MLB docket.
MLB: Top MLB Weekend Power Trends 8/7-8/92009-08-07
The stretch run continues in Major League Baseball with another full set of action this weekend. As the contenders continue to be separated from the pretenders, there are a number of series’ that loom large for some teams’ postseason prospects. In fact, this might be one of the most impactful weekends we’ve seen in awhile in baseball. Read on as we take a look at all of the key matchups, then reveal our weekly list of Top StatFox Power Trends to consider in your wagering over the next few days.
In the N.L. East Division, Philadelphia is comfortably ahead of both the Marlins and Braves. Unfortunately for those chasing teams, they will be on the road taking on the league’s best two clubs. Florida visits the Phillies, and while on the surface it would seem to be an ideal situation for the Marlins to make up ground in a hurry, don’t forget that the defending champs swept a series in Miami just a few weeks back. In two of those games, the Fish were shut out. Philly’s 25-15 divisional record is a big reason they sport a 7-game lead in the standings. The Braves meanwhile will be in Los Angeles taking on the Dodgers, who continue to boast the N.L.’s best record. Both teams seem to be spinning their wheels at this point in the season though, with identical 5-7 marks in their last 12 games.
In the N.L. Central, the division leading Cubs & Cardinals are both on the road, while chasers Milwaukee and Houston will be going head-to-head. Chicago faces the toughest test, playing in Colorado. However, the Cubbies own an 11-4 edge in the head-to-head series over the last three seasons. The Cardinals meanwhile, are in Pittsburgh for a 3-game set. The Pirates have lost five in a row and 10 of their last 12, but did take two-of-three from St. Louis at home back in May. The Brewers/Astros series will be an interesting one in that both teams remain within 5-games of the top spot in the division. Houston has cooled since its mid-season surge, going just 3-9 in its L12 games. Milwaukee meanwhile, comes off a series win in Los Angeles to get back to .500. This begins a critical stretch of 22 straight games against teams with losing records for the Brew Crew. If they hope to repeat their postseason appearance of 2008, they need to make hay now.
In the American League, most eyes will be fixed on New York, where the Yankees and Boston will be continuing a key 4-game set. Entering play on Thursday, New York held a slim 1-1/2 game lead in the East Divison, but boosted that by a game by whipping the Red Sox, 13-6. The win was important for the Yankees not only in the divisional picture, but also because of the fact that it snapped an 8-game losing streak to the Sox this season. New York boasts a 36-17 record at home in 2009, while Boston slipped to 27-28 on the road with Thursday’s loss.
The other two divisions in the Junior Circuit boast big series’ as well. In Detroit, it could be last gasp time for the Twins, as they head into the Motor City chasing 4-1/2 games in the standings. Minnesota has played some of its best ball in divisional games this year though, going 21-14 overall and 6-2 against the Central-leading Tigers. In the West, the Rangers face the same exact scenario as the Twins in terms of standings and home/road dichotomy. They are also chasing 4-1/2 games and headed to the home of the club they are chasing, the Angels. Like Minnesota, Texas also owns a huge edge in divisional record, as the Rangers are 22-12 vs. West foes, while the Angels are just 14-17. They’ll need that pattern to continue if they hope to pick up valuable ground. In the head-to-head series, Texas owns a 7-2 mark this season.
It should be an exciting weekend in Major League Baseball, one filled with fabulous wagering opportunities. Be sure to visit the Game Matchups page daily for the latest key game info, and also don’t neglect the following Top StatFox Power Trends as you build your daily wagering cards.
FLORIDA at PHILADELPHIA
FLORIDA is 11-6 (+10.5 Units) against the money line in road games vs. teams outscoring opp by 0.5 or more runs/game in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons. The average score was FLORIDA 4.9, OPPONENT 3.7 - (Rating = 1*)
ST LOUIS at PITTSBURGH
PITTSBURGH is 9-34 (-20.9 Units) against the money line vs. NL teams allowing 4.3 or less runs/game in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons. The average score was PITTSBURGH 3.7, OPPONENT 5.8 - (Rating = 1*)
ARIZONA at WASHINGTON
WASHINGTON is 24-54 (-28.0 Units) against the money line vs. an NL team with a team batting average of .255 or worse over the last 2 seasons. The average score was WASHINGTON 4.1, OPPONENT 5.2 - (Rating = 1*)
MILWAUKEE at HOUSTON
MILWAUKEE is 21-31 (-14.1 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record this season. The average score was MILWAUKEE 4.6, OPPONENT 5.4 - (Rating = 1*)
CHICAGO CUBS at COLORADO
COLORADO is 81-52 (+23.5 Units) against the money line vs. an NL team with an on base percentage .325 or worse in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons. The average score was COLORADO 5.3, OPPONENT 4.5 - (Rating = 1*)
NY METS at SAN DIEGO
SAN DIEGO is 11-28 (-17.5 Units) against the money line vs. teams whose hitters strike out 6 or less times/game over the last 2 seasons. The average score was SAN DIEGO 3.8, OPPONENT 5.6 - (Rating = 1*)
ATLANTA at LA DODGERS
ATLANTA is 21-36 (-17.9 Units) against the money line in road games vs. an overused bullpen that pitches more than 3.2 innings per game over the last 2 seasons. The average score was ATLANTA 4.4, OPPONENT 4.4 - (Rating = 1*)
CINCINNATI at SAN FRANCISCO
CINCINNATI is 3-15 (-11.7 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season this season. The average score was CINCINNATI 3.4, OPPONENT 5.5 - (Rating = 1*)
BOSTON at NY YANKEES
BOSTON is 18-30 (-18.9 Units) against the money line when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 54% to 62%) in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons. The average score was BOSTON 4.4, OPPONENT 4.9 - (Rating = 2*)
BALTIMORE at TORONTO
BALTIMORE is 34-72 (-32.6 Units) against the money line vs. a good bullpen whose WHIP is 1.350 or better over the last 2 seasons. The average score was BALTIMORE 4.3, OPPONENT 5.7 - (Rating = 1*)
MINNESOTA at DETROIT
MINNESOTA is 62-40 (+16.5 Units) against the money line vs. an average bullpen whose ERA is 3.75 to 4.50 over the last 2 seasons. The average score was MINNESOTA 5.0, OPPONENT 4.2 - (Rating = 1*)
CLEVELAND at CHI WHITE SOX
CHI WHITE SOX are 76-50 (+22.1 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons. The average score was CHI WHITE SOX 5.3, OPPONENT 4.3 - (Rating = 1*)
OAKLAND at KANSAS CITY
KANSAS CITY is 15-4 (+10.6 Units) against the money line in home games when playing against a bad team (Win Pct. 38% to 46%) in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons. The average score was KANSAS CITY 5.3, OPPONENT 3.6 - (Rating = 0*)
TEXAS at LA ANGELS
LA ANGELS are 27-13 (+13.9 Units) against the money line vs. a good bullpen whose WHIP is 1.350 or better this season. The average score was LA ANGELS 5.7, OPPONENT 4.9 - (Rating = 2*)
TAMPA BAY at SEATTLE
TAMPA BAY is 18-6 UNDER (+11.0 Units) in road games vs. an AL team with an on base percentage .330 or worse in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons. The average score was TAMPA BAY 3.8, OPPONENT 4.4 - (Rating = 1*)